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2018 - An exceptional (ongoing) summer for the UK

Talk about the weather
RayProudfoot
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2018 - An exceptional (ongoing) summer for the UK

Postby RayProudfoot » Sat Jul 21, 2018 5:11 pm

The summer of 2018 in the UK is now being compared to that of 1976 which for those of a certain age represents the 'ultimate' summer.

I consider a reasonable summer's day to be one where the temp reaches the magical 70F mark. That's 21C.

Here is a query from my Access database showing the count of 21C days by year (vertical) and month (horizontal). Even with over two months to go before a max of 21C is unlikely 2018 looks to be a record breaker. I'm sure those of you with Cumulus MX and SQL skills can produce better looking displays. ;)

DaysOver21C.png
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Cheers,
Ray, Cheshire.

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Mapantz
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Re: 2018 - An exceptional (ongoing) summer for the UK

Postby Mapantz » Sat Jul 21, 2018 6:09 pm

It shouldn't be compared to 1976 yet. If August has average temps, Summer 2018 will only just make it in to the top 10. If sunshine hours in August are around average, it will just make it in to the top 5 of sunniest Summer's on record. If rainfall in August turns out to be average, it might not make it in to the top 10 of driest Summer's.

Although the heat will continue to build (and humidity) this coming week, especially in the SE, where 35°C is possible.. August is starting to show some signs of a breakdown.
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RayProudfoot
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Joined: Wed May 06, 2009 6:29 pm
Weather Station: Davis VP2 with Daytime FARS
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Re: 2018 - An exceptional (ongoing) summer for the UK

Postby RayProudfoot » Sat Jul 21, 2018 7:28 pm

I wasn't making a direct comparison. Some parts of the media are doing that. I'd be interested to see the source of your data you use for comparisons.

My solar panels have smashed records for May, June and almost certainly, July. My June average is 3.3C above average and July 3.5C above average. Rainfall records for May, June and July are 50%, 8% and 34% of average.

Any weather predictions more than 7 days ahead are very unreliable such is the nature of the atmosphere. After all, did anyone forecast such a long settled period back in late April before the dry and sunny spell started on the 5th?

My chart above is simply for temperature but rainfall is also very low and this area will have a hosepipe ban starting in 2 weeks. Given our water comes from the Lake District that speaks volumes.

It would be odd indeed if the weather broke down completely in the next couple of weeks but I don't entirely rule it out. Perhaps they should employ a Minister of Drought. Within a couple of weeks of doing that in 1976 the heavens opened. :D
Cheers,
Ray, Cheshire.

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Mapantz
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Re: 2018 - An exceptional (ongoing) summer for the UK

Postby Mapantz » Sat Jul 21, 2018 9:30 pm

It wasn't aimed at you, Ray. I apologise if that's how it came across. It was the media I meant, as I have been reading/hearing it too.

The stats I mentioned came directly from the Met Office.

Regards to predicting the weather; Locally, that's very difficult, and for the British Isles themselves. However, teleconnections can give some good indications of weather patterns across the world, and what influence they may have up and downstream. Slow and evolving patterns across the Pacific herald a change downstream.. Blocking certainly still looks on the cards around Scandinavia, but Atlantic low pressure may exert a stronger push on it as we get in to August, but it's not certain how stubborn the block will be. A likely scenario is to develop a Northwest/Southeast split in the weather - More unsettled and cooler towards the Northwest, the best of the weather hanging on in the South and East, with possible hot spells still occurring.

It's certainly a Summer to remember, but it would take a special set of circumstances to keep things going like this through August as well. (I hope it does) but we shall see! :D
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RayProudfoot
Posts: 2541
Joined: Wed May 06, 2009 6:29 pm
Weather Station: Davis VP2 with Daytime FARS
Operating System: Windows XP SP3
Location: Cheadle Hulme, Cheshire, England
Contact:

Re: 2018 - An exceptional (ongoing) summer for the UK

Postby RayProudfoot » Sat Jul 21, 2018 10:21 pm

Thanks for clearing that up Mapantz. It did appear out of character.

Most of our weather is driven by the jet stream and for a couple of months now that has taken an unusual turn with severe kinks over SW Europe causing poor weather in that part of the world back in May when the sun just kept shining in the U.K.

It all seems to have started with the SSW responsible for “the beast from the east”. Severe weather at the end of Feb and briefly in March followed by a wet April and then a blocking high that remained unchanged for most of the next two months.

I cannot see any pattern in that except chaos. I agree that the SE will probably enjoy the better weather at the expense of the NW but that is to be expected.

This part of the world enjoyed clear skies day after day in early May onwards when the winds were predominantly from an easterly direction as they were for Feb, March, April and May. Just look at my wind stats to confirm an extremely unusual sequence. http://www.cheadlehulmeweather.co.uk/NOAA.php?yr=2018

It will all end at some point but anyone who accurately predicts it could become rich if he’s a betting man. :D
Cheers,
Ray, Cheshire.

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