Jeez, the weather is *boring*.

peterh · Post by **peterh** » Sat 05 Jan 2013 3:48 pm

For the last couple days, we're stuck between 1034 and 1036 hPa. Solid stratus, either dry or a very mild drizzle. There is hardly any daily cycle, and hardly any wind. Temps are between 7 and 11 Celcius. There is this high pressure system above France that is essentially blocking any exciting stuff trying to come our way...

Why did I get a PWS??!?

mstrandbo · Post by **mstrandbo** » Sat 05 Jan 2013 5:26 pm

Same here, and no wind combined with a bit of freezing fog, made my anemometer freeze up.

RayProudfoot · Post by **RayProudfoot** » Sun 06 Jan 2013 1:01 pm

I think you'll find few in the UK complaining about the current weather. Every day since the 1st has had a max over 10C and yesterday and today the sun has shone. The last frost at this station was on 14 December.

With the cost of home heating at an all-time high I could live with these conditions until the end of Feb! Boring maybe but after 203 days of recorded rain in 2012 it's time we had some better weather.

Karv · Post by **Karv** » Sun 06 Jan 2013 10:32 pm

I'm totally excited by this weather - instead of sitting indoors looking out, I've been outdoors trying to find Romans!

No luck, but at least I don't need waders this week

weatherfrog80 · Post by **weatherfrog80** » Sun 06 Jan 2013 11:53 pm

peterh wrote:For the last couple days, we're stuck between 1034 and 1036 hPa. Solid stratus, either dry or a very mild drizzle. There is hardly any daily cycle, and hardly any wind. Temps are between 7 and 11 Celcius. There is this high pressure system above France that is essentially blocking any exciting stuff trying to come our way...

Why did I get a PWS??!?

Couldn't agree more. The last time i have seen the sun here was on New Years afternoon shortly before sunset.
Since then it was only grey and overcast all the time, every now and then drizzle or a light rain at the most.
But for the weekend it should become a bit more wintry here, with colder air coming in from Scandinavia, maybe even
with some snow. Hoping for a change.

peterh · Post by **peterh** » Mon 07 Jan 2013 8:35 am

I guess that, for most of us, the weather we've been having is comfortable. It's just that watching it is somewhat dull. We haven't had any sun until yesterday, when it briefly peered down from behind the clouds. Apparently it didn't like what it saw, because that was it for the day, as far as the sun was concerned

But now, we're seeing a slow pressure drop and at 4am, the wind dropped, and then fairly abruptly changed from west to southwest... and at around the same time, the temperature took an upwards trend, followed by a brief spell of rain at 7:30.

So... things are happening.

RayProudfoot · Post by **RayProudfoot** » Mon 07 Jan 2013 10:36 am

On last night's BBC weather forecast they were predicting the possibility of a high forming over Scandinavia. This would introduce easterly winds into the UK with a substantial temperature drop but clearer skies. But confidence was not that high. We should know more by mid-week.

In the meantime another 10C+ day here is likely.

peterh · Post by **peterh** » Mon 07 Jan 2013 12:14 pm

That high is predicted to travel in a WSW direction.
If that would materialise, it would mean polar air in your general direction... and a lot less dramatic results for us. I would foresee mild frost in the night and above zero during the day for our region.

Anything frontal coming our way from the northwest is very likely to upset my hunch. I am putting my money on us not getting a Horror Winter or even a Snowmageddon in the foreseeable future (foreseeable for me: 10 days).

RayProudfoot · Post by **RayProudfoot** » Mon 07 Jan 2013 5:05 pm

peterh wrote:That high is predicted to travel in a WSW direction.
If that would materialise, it would mean polar air in your general direction... and a lot less dramatic results for us. I would foresee mild frost in the night and above zero during the day for our region.

Doesn't sound particularly severe for you Peter. I would normally expect sub-zero daytime temps on that side of the North Sea with a NE airstream.

Anything frontal coming our way from the northwest is very likely to upset my hunch. I am putting my money on us not getting a Horror Winter or even a Snowmageddon in the foreseeable future (foreseeable for me: 10 days).

Better than upsetting your lunch!

My gut feeling is we in the UK will have a mild winter with just occasional snow fall. 3 years ago this morning this station experienced its lowest recorded minimum of -11.1C. Nearby Woodford recorded -18C. In comaprison last night's low was +7.7C

Here's the latest forecast from the UK Met Office... By the weekend the forecast become trickier. Some computer models want to build high pressure to the north of the UK which would lead to northeasterly winds bringing much colder air feeding across the country. This would mean the likelihood of some wintry showers. Alternatively some models suggest that the winds will come from the southwest, bringing Atlantic weather systems and a return to milder conditions.

At the moment the first scenario is perhaps the most likely but the development of these scenarios will be closely monitored throughout this week.

So that's nice and clear then. NE or SW winds!

Karv · Post by **Karv** » Mon 07 Jan 2013 6:01 pm

I'd love to work for the metoffice, no-one ever expects you to be 100% right or 100% on time

peterh · Post by **peterh** » Mon 07 Jan 2013 7:12 pm

If you want to be 100% right, here's one thing you should never aspire to do: predict the weather.
Our local variety of the Met Office, the KNMI, gets it right five days ahead about 75% of the time. Which I think is a stellar achievement.

As a stoopit forrinner, I can't help but think that RoyalMet gets a *huge* lot of flak from the tabloids. Each time RoyalMet fails (or supposedly fails), they get a beating from the tabloids. Yet, the same tabloids get away with "horror winter" headlines each year, as predicted by vague and questionable long range forecasting bureaus... and when these horror winters fail to materialise, there is no mention whatsoever.

It's not hugely different here. KNMI occasionally issues a weather alarm. When nothing happens, everyone is all over them for issuing false alarms. But when they issue a weather alarm and something *does* seriously go wrong, as happened a couple years ago when we got winds estimated at 130mph, or two years ago when the entire country was brought to a standstill by predicted huge snowfall, nobody compliments them...

peter

Mapantz · Post by **Mapantz** » Tue 08 Jan 2013 11:22 am

The Met Office' MOGREPS model has now come onboard for snow showers in the East by the late weekend. The ECMWF 32day outlook is going for height rises across Greenland indicating blocking and keeping it cool and allowing the chances of colder air filtering in across the UK. I don't think the models have taken in to account the SSW yet either and so that's all to play for towards the end of January and in to February.
I sense some battleground scenarios to come. In the meantime, by the weekend and possibly in to next week, we're looking at cold conditions by night across the UK, with hard frosts. Temps widely down to -3 or -4°C perhaps down to negative double figures in the highlands.
I'm looking for to an interesting period of weather coming up.

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