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The Zambretti Weathercard Forecaster

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Buford T. Justice
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The Zambretti Weathercard Forecaster

Postby Buford T. Justice » Thu Feb 14, 2013 7:11 pm

Edit 2/15/2013 2:37 PM CST:

The attached zambretti.zip file has been updated.

-----

I came across one of these. It uses 950-1050 hPa, wind direction, summer/winter, and rising/steady/falling just like the Zambretti Forecaster. It, however, uses different forecast names and has 27 forecasts.

Here are the forecasts which use numbers (no letters):
1) Stormy, Much Rain
2) Very Unsettled, Much Rain
3) Very Unsettled, Rain
4) Rain At Frequent Intervals
5) Unsettled, Rain At Times
6) Changeable, Some Rain
7) Rain At Times, Fine Intervals
8) Local Showers, Fine In Between
9) Fine, But Tendency To Local Showers
10) Fine Generally
11) Fine Over A Large Area
12) Settled Fine Weather
13) Stormy, Temporarily Better
14) Very Unsettled, But Some Improvement
15) Very Unsettled, Becoming Finer
16) Unsettled, But Improving
17) Some Rain, But Improving
18) Ran At Times, Becoming Less
19) Occasional Rain, But Improving
20) Some Showers, But Improving
21) Rather Unsettled, But Improving
22) Fine As A Whole And Improving
23) Fine, Becoming More Settled
24) Some Rain, More To Follow
25) Changeable, Some Rain, Worse Later
26) Showery, Becoming More Settled
27) Rather Unsettled, Local Showers

If Rising, it goes:
13, 13, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 10, 11, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12

If Steady, it goes:
1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12

If Falling, it goes:
1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 3, 3, 24, 5, 25, 26, 27, 23, 10, 11, 11, 12, 12

Using Beteljuice's work for the Zambretti Forecaster, I updated it as best I could to use the Zambretti Weathercard Forecaster instead. It seems like it works so far. The zip is attached to this post.

Personally, these forecasts seem to be more accurate, but I am still experimenting.
Last edited by Buford T. Justice on Sat Feb 16, 2013 7:23 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: The Zambretti Weathercard Forecaster

Postby William Grimsley » Thu Feb 14, 2013 7:28 pm

WOW! I never knew that! I think that's very interesting! :D

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Re: The Zambretti Weathercard Forecaster

Postby beteljuice » Thu Feb 14, 2013 11:34 pm

Personally, these forecasts seem to be more accurate, but I am still experimenting.
Then you have a problem :?

First issue:
Your 'look-up' arrays use 1 > 27, but the forecast array is 0 > 26, so everything has been shifted by at least one decision ;)

eg. It is impossible to get the forecast "Stormy, Much Rain" (0 does not appear in the look-up tables), and "Rather Unsettled, Local Showers" (27 is one greater than the forecast array)

Next possible problem is the number of decisions (for rising, falling, steady), the code and the brass wheel forecaster offer 22, if your card offers eg. 21 then the code needs to modified in a few places and the 'true' thresholds / order of look-ups needs top be determined.

Edit. I originally miscounted 20 instead of 22 for the number of descisions.
Last edited by beteljuice on Fri Feb 15, 2013 11:07 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: The Zambretti Weathercard Forecaster

Postby Buford T. Justice » Fri Feb 15, 2013 12:05 am

beteljuice wrote:
Personally, these forecasts seem to be more accurate, but I am still experimenting.
Then you have a problem :?

First issue:
Your 'look-up' arrays use 1 > 27, but the forecast array is 0 > 26, so everything has been shifted by at least one decision ;)

eg. It is impossible to get the forecast "Stormy, Much Rain" (0 does not appear in the look-up tables), and "Rather Unsettled, Local Showers" (27 is one greater than the forecast array)

Next possible problem is the number of decisions (for rising, falling, steady), the code and the brass wheel forecaster offer 20, if your card offers eg. 21 then the code needs to modified in a few places and the 'true' thresholds / order of look-ups needs top be determined.

I just lowered them all by 1 in your code. I am not sure how to do the rest of the adjustments though. Update attached to first post.

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Re: The Zambretti Weathercard Forecaster

Postby beteljuice » Fri Feb 15, 2013 12:29 am

How many rising / falling / steady options does your card present - 20 or 21 ?

When you said more accurate I suspect you mean you simply prefer the wording :P , but is does have to apply to what's going to happen ;)

Edit: If your first post reflects the card rather than the modified code, it's 20, so we need to know where (decisionwise) they snuck the extra bit in.
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Re: The Zambretti Weathercard Forecaster

Postby Buford T. Justice » Fri Feb 15, 2013 1:04 am

beteljuice wrote:How many rising / falling / steady options does your card present - 20 or 21 ?

When you said more accurate I suspect you mean you simply prefer the wording :P , but is does have to apply to what's going to happen ;)

Edit: If your first post reflects the card rather than the modified code, it's 20, so we need to know where (decisionwise) they snuck the extra bit in.

When I said I thought it to be more accurate, I meant the using the card; not the algorithm from your work.

Yes it has 20 for rising, steady, and falling. Later tonight, I'll type out what each is. Would there be a preferred wind direction and season to use? I have to leave now, but I will get back here later tonight.

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Re: The Zambretti Weathercard Forecaster

Postby beteljuice » Fri Feb 15, 2013 2:27 am

I've just spent a few hours trying to 'translate' the descriptions accross the two when I suddenly realised that although you have an 'extra' weather description you only have 20 'thresholds' for rising / falling / steady - whereas the original brass dial and the code has 22 !

It would take more time for experimentation than I am prepared to give at the moment to determine which description fits which threshold best ....... :bash:
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Re: The Zambretti Weathercard Forecaster

Postby beteljuice » Fri Feb 15, 2013 4:29 am

To run the 27 decisions / 20 thresholds in your currently modified JavaScript (now that you have corrected the look-up table values) you need to modify:
about line #46

Code: Select all

   z_constant = (z_range / 22).toFixed(3);
to:

Code: Select all

   z_constant = (z_range / 20).toFixed(3);
and about line #146 from:

Code: Select all

   if(z_option > 21) {
      z_option = 21;
      z_output = "Exceptional Weather, ";
   }
To:

Code: Select all

   if(z_option > 19) {
      z_option = 19;
      z_output = "Exceptional Weather, ";
   }
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Re: The Zambretti Weathercard Forecaster

Postby beteljuice » Fri Feb 15, 2013 2:04 pm

Attempting to 'marry' the original beteljuice and Beaufort T Justice look-up tables we get:

Code: Select all

Rising
25, 25, 25, 24, 24, 19, 16, 12, 11,  9,  8,  6,  5,  2,  1,  1,  0,  0,  0,  0,  0,  0
13, 13, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 10, 11,         12, 12, 12, 12, 12

steady_options
25, 25, 25, 25, 25, 25, 23, 23, 22, 18, 15, 13, 10,  4,  1,  1,  0,  0,  0,  0,  0, 0
 1,  1,   1,   1,  1,    2,    -3-,  4,  5,   6,  7,  8,  9, 10, 11, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12

fall_options
25, 25, 25, 25, 25, 25, 25, 25, 23, 23, 21, 20, 17, 14,  7,  3,  1,  1,  1,  0,  0,  0
 1,  1,  1,  1,  1,  1,  1,      3,  3, 24,  5, 25, 26, 27, 23, 10,     11, 11, 12, 12
 
so:
(R = Rising forecast, S = Steady forecast, F = Falling forecast)

0 - "Settled fine", = 12) Settled Fine Weather (R, S, F)

1 - "Fine weather", = 9) Fine, But Tendency To Local Showers (S)
                     10) Fine Generally (S, F)
                     11) Fine Over A Large Area (R, F)

2 - "Becoming fine", = 10) Fine Generally (R)

3 - "Fine, becoming less settled", = 23) Fine, Becoming More Settled (F) *** ERROR falling MUST be 'less' ***

4 - "Fine, possible showers", = 8) Local Showers, Fine In Between (S)

5 - "Fairly fine, improving", = 23) Fine, Becoming More Settled (R)

6 - "Fairly fine, possible showers early", = 22) Fine As A Whole And Improving (R)

7 - "Fairly fine, showery later", = 27) Rather Unsettled, Local Showers (F)

8 - "Showery early, improving", = 8) Local Showers, Fine In Between (R)

9 - "Changeable, mending", = 20) Some Showers, But Improving (R)

10 - "Fairly fine, showers likely", = 7) Rain At Times, Fine Intervals (S)

11 - "Rather unsettled clearing later", = 19) Occasional Rain, But Improving (R)

12 - "Unsettled, probably improving", = 18) Rain At Times, Becoming Less (R)

13 - "Showery, bright intervals", = 6) Changeable, Some Rain (S)

14 - "Showery, becoming less settled", = 26) Showery, Becoming More Settled (F) *** ERROR falling MUST be 'less' ***

15 - "Changeable, some rain", = 15) Very Unsettled, Becoming Finer (S) (If steady, how can it become finer ?)

16 - "Unsettled, short fine intervals", = 17) Some Rain, But Improving (R)

17 - "Unsettled, rain later", = 25) Changeable, Some Rain, Worse Later (F)

18 - "Unsettled, some rain", = 5) Unsettled, Rain At Times (S)

19 - "Mostly very unsettled", = 16) Unsettled, But Improving (R)

20 - "Occasional rain, worsening", = 5) Unsettled, Rain At Times (F) (original more apt)

21 - "Rain at times, very unsettled", = 24) Some Rain, More To Follow (F)

22 - "Rain at frequent intervals", = 3) Very Unsettled, Rain (S)

23 - "Rain, very unsettled", = 3) Very Unsettled, Rain (S, F)

24 - "Stormy, may improve", = 14) Very Unsettled, But Some Improvement (R)
                              15) Very Unsettled, Becoming Finer (R)

25 - "Stormy, much rain" = 13) Stormy, Temporarily Better / 14) Very Unsettled, But Some Improvement (R)
                            1) Stormy, Much Rain (S, F)

As can be seen there is general agreement, but 'the card' makes extra decisions in the 'Fine' and 'Stormy' range (Which may or may not be valid as its thresholds are two less than the original)
The only way the Zambretti / Cumulus forecast could attempt this would be to change the code (look-up tables).

However; There are some better descriptive possibilities ....

If you would like to modify / use your strings.ini ... See Wiki Make sure to back-up your original !

The beteljuice suggests ....

Code: Select all

[Forecast]
Forecast=Forecast
notavailable=Not available
exceptional=Exceptional Weather
forecast1=Settled fine
forecast2=Fine weather
forecast3=Becoming fine
forecast4=Fine, becoming less settled
forecast5=Fine, possible showers
forecast6=Fairly fine, improving
forecast7=Fairly fine, possible showers early
forecast8=Fairly fine, showery later
forecast9=Showery early, improving
forecast10=Some showers, but improving
forecast11=Fairly fine, showers likely
forecast12=Occasional precipitation, but improving
forecast13=Precipitation at times, probably improving
forecast14=Showery, bright intervals
forecast15=Showery, becoming less settled
forecast16=Changeable, some precipitation
forecast17=Some precipitation, short fine intervals
forecast18=Unsettled, precipitation later
forecast19=Unsettled, some precipitation
forecast20=Mostly very unsettled, but improving
forecast21=Occasional precipitation, worsening
forecast22=Precipitation at times, more to follow
forecast23=Precipitation at frequent intervals
forecast24=Precipitation, very unsettled
forecast25=Stormy, may improve
forecast26=Stormy, much precipitation


There are only a few modifications with a slight bias toward 'precipitation' - time and location will prove whether the changes are appropriate or not !
Last edited by beteljuice on Fri Feb 15, 2013 11:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Zambretti Weathercard Forecaster

Postby Buford T. Justice » Fri Feb 15, 2013 8:10 pm

Sorry for the delay. I stayed at the bar a little too late last night, lol.

I ran through the rising/steady/falling forecasts using Summer and wind from the West and got these:

Rising:

950-953 = 13. Stormy, Temporarily Better
953-957 = 14. Very Unsettled, But Some Improvement
958-963 = 15. Very Unsettled, Becoming Finer
964-970 = 16. Unsettled, But Improving
971-975 = 17. Some Rain, But Improving
976-982 = 18. Rain At Times, Becoming Less
983-986 = 19. Occasional Rain, But Improving
987-993 = 20. Some Showers, But Improving
994-999 = 21. Rather Unsettled, But Improving
1000-1005 = 22. Fine As A Whole And Improving
1006-1011 = 23. Fine, Becoming More Settled
1012-1018 = 10. Fine Generally
1019-1024 = 11. Fine Over A Large Area
1025-1050 = 12. Settled Fine Weather

Steady:

950-968 = 1. Stormy, Much Rain
969-975 = 2. Very Unsettled, Much Rain
976-981 = 3. Very Unsettled, Rain
982-986 = 4. Rain At Frequent Intervals
987-992 = 5. Unsettled, Rain At Times
993-999 = 6. Changeable, Some Rain
1000-1005 = 7. Rain At Times, Fine Intervals
1006-1011 = 8. Local Showers, Fine In Between
1012-1017 = 9. Fine, But Tendency To Local Showers
1018-1024 = 10. Fine Generally
1025-1038 = 11. Fine Over A Large Area
1039-1050 = 12. Settled Fine Weather

Falling:

950-980 = 1. Stormy, Much Rain
981-991 = 3. Very Unsettled, Rain
992-999 = 24. Some Rain, More To Follow
1000-1005 = 5. Unsettled, Rain At Times
1006-1011 = 25. Changeable, Some Rain, Worse Later
1012-1017 = 26. Showery, Becoming More Settled
1018-1024 = 27. Rather Unsettled, Local Showers
1025-1029 = 23. Fine, Becoming More Settled
1030-1034 = 10. Fine Generally
1035-1046 = 11. Fine Over A Large Area
1047-1050 = 12. Settled Fine Weather

I also started changing a new strings.ini file but am still working on it as I want it to be as perfect as possible. It's that Virgo mentality.

I'll update the code with your corrections and reattach it to the first post. Thank you so much for all your help so far Beteljuice.

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Re: The Zambretti Weathercard Forecaster

Postby Buford T. Justice » Fri Feb 15, 2013 9:24 pm

http://www.beteljuice.co.uk/zambretti/forecast.html

I just noticed yours is using different names than what you mentioned.

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Re: The Zambretti Weathercard Forecaster

Postby Buford T. Justice » Fri Feb 15, 2013 11:22 pm

On the original strings.ini file, I updated the wording to the 2000 version of the Zambretti Forecaster. Here are those forecasts:

Code: Select all

[Forecast]
Forecast=Forecast
notavailable=N/A
exceptional=Exceptional Weather
forecast1=Settled Fine
forecast2=Fine Weather
forecast3=Becoming Fine
forecast4=Fine, Becoming Less Settled
forecast5=Fine, Possible Showers
forecast6=Fairly Fine, Improving
forecast7=Fairly Fine, Possible Showers Early
forecast8=Fairly Fine, Showery Later
forecast9=Showery Early, Improving
forecast10=Changeable, Mending
forecast11=Fairly Fine, Showers Likely
forecast12=Rather Unsettled, Clearing Later
forecast13=Unsettled, Probably Improving
forecast14=Showery, Bright Intervals
forecast15=Showery, Becoming More Unsettled
forecast16=Changeable, Some Rain
forecast17=Unsettled, Short Fine Intervals
forecast18=Unsettled, Rain Later
forecast19=Unsettled, Rain At Times
forecast20=Very Unsettled, Finer At Times
forecast21=Rain At Times, Worse Later
forecast22=Rain At Times, Becoming Very Unsettled
forecast23=Rain At Frequent Intervals
forecast24=Very Unsettled, Rain
forecast25=Stormy, Possibly Improving
forecast26=Stormy, Much Rain

Using the above Zambretti Forecaster forecasts, I painstakingly matched the readings from my Zambretti Forecaster to my Zambretti Weathercard Forecaster. Here are the same 26 forecasts as matched to the Zambretti Weathercard Forecaster:

Code: Select all

[Forecast]
Forecast=Forecast
notavailable=N/A
exceptional=Exceptional Weather
forecast1=Settled Fine Weather
forecast2=Fine Over A Large Area
forecast3=Fine Generally
forecast4=Fine Generally
forecast5=Fine Generally
forecast6=Fine, Becoming More Settled
forecast7=Fine As A Whole And Improving
forecast8=Fine, Becoming More Settled
forecast9=Rather Unsettled, But Improving
forecast10=Some Showers, But Improving
forecast11=Fine, But Tendency To Local Showers
forecast12=Occasional Rain, But Improving
forecast13=Rain At Times, Becoming Less
forecast14=Local Showers, Fine In Between
forecast15=Rather Unsettled, Local Showers
forecast16=Changeable, Some Rain
forecast17=Some Rain, But Improving
forecast18=Showery, Becoming More Settled
forecast19=Unsettled, Rain At Times
forecast20=Unsettled, But Improving
forecast21=Changeable, Some Rain, Worse Later
forecast22=Some Rain, More To Follow
forecast23=Rain At Frequent Intervals
forecast24=Very Unsettled, Rain
forecast25=Very Unsettled, But Some Improvement
forecast26=Stormy, Much Rain

Only two or three used the exact same wording and Fine Generally was the exact result for the ones that wound up being repeated.

These Zambretti Weathercard forecasts wound up not being used:

2) Very Unsettled, Much Rain
7) Rain At Times, Fine Intervals
13) Stormy, Temporarily Better
15) Very Unsettled, Becoming Finer

Attached is the strings.ini file using the Zambretti Weathercard Forecasts. Be sure to rename your current strings.ini file to something else then save the attached strings.ini file and restart Cumulus.
Last edited by Buford T. Justice on Fri Feb 15, 2013 11:30 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: The Zambretti Weathercard Forecaster

Postby beteljuice » Fri Feb 15, 2013 11:27 pm

I just noticed yours is using different names than what you mentioned.
:?:
If you mean the Cumulus version ....
That became reworded over time because modern users had trouble with the original 'archaic' meteo speak.

... and because sometimes it gets cold, rain became precipitation (although typically here at least snow occurs only at the 'higher' precipitation advisories)
Sorry for the delay. I stayed at the bar a little too late last night, lol.

Just been there, done that :roll:
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